One open question is exactly how many players Edge of Fate will launch with, considering who has remained since the release of Destiny 2’s The Final Shape over a year ago, especially given how the game functions now.

I believe we can use math to get a decent estimate, based on the difference between pre-expansion player numbers and the spikes seen at launch. Naturally, we’ll be using Steam data for this, as it's the only source available. It’s also worth noting that we only have Steam data from the release of Beyond Light onward, so no figures for Forsaken or Shadowkeep.

Pre-Beyond Light Month (Oct 2020) – 94,000 concurrents

Beyond Light (Nov 2020) – 242,000 concurrents

Increase – 2.57x

Pre-Witch Queen Month (Jan 2022) – 78,000 concurrents

Witch Queen (Feb 2022) – 290,000 concurrents

Increase – 3.71x

Pre-Lightfall Month (Jan 2023) – 96,000 concurrents

Lightfall (Feb 2023) – 316,000 concurrents

Increase – 3.29x

Pre-Final Shape Month (May 2024) – 116,000 concurrents

The Final Shape (June 2024) – 314,000 concurrents

Increase – 2.7x increase

What I’ll do here is average out these increases, resulting in a 3.01x multiplier.

Now, take the current player count for this month — the month before Edge of Fate releases: 38,000

3.01 x 38,000 = a potential peak of 114,000. This would be less than half of the peaks reached by Beyond Light and Witch Queen, and roughly a third of those achieved by Lightfall and Final Shape. It’s even possible this might be an over-estimate, especially considering that in the post-Light and Darkness era, a smaller, lower-profile expansion may not draw as much attention.

I’m not trying to downplay the game, but we need to face the new reality for Destiny 2 moving forward. I’ve avoided reporting on the "record lows" the game has hit nearly every month since The Final Shape, but now we must consider what kind of boost these smaller expansions will realistically bring. Then, of course, we'll need to check how the next expansion, the Star Wars-themed Renegades, performs six months later.

On the revenue side, the key factor will be whether the reduced cost of producing less content with fewer staff can align with the new, lower average player numbers without pushing the game into financial loss. This isn’t a short-term change—it’s the plan for at least the next few years, with no Destiny 3 in sight. It will need to work to some extent, because at this point, betting on Marathon to provide a major financial boost seems risky (we’ve already discussed this extensively).

Perhaps Edge of Fate will surprise us, but it's a smaller expansion with less content, separate from the overarching Light and Darkness story. Expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

The above is the detailed content of Calculating How Many Players 'Destiny 2: The Edge Of Fate' Will Launch With, Per Math. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!