Sun的消失和Oracle的猜想
Jun 07, 2016 pm 04:54 PMSun終于塵埃落定,歸于Oracle,結(jié)束之前持續(xù)了幾個(gè)月的ldquo;待嫁r(nóng)dquo;焦慮。ldquo;這是Sun的最好歸宿,是一個(gè)雙贏的收購(gòu)
Sun終于塵埃落定,歸于Oracle,結(jié)束之前持續(xù)了幾個(gè)月的“待嫁”焦慮?!斑@是Sun的最好歸宿,是一個(gè)雙贏的收購(gòu)行為!”不少評(píng)論者和Sun追隨者如此感慨。
然而,細(xì)細(xì)分析,這樣的預(yù)測(cè)似乎有簡(jiǎn)單之嫌。一樁大的行業(yè)收購(gòu)案背后,往往交織著錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的矛盾和利益紛爭(zhēng),有贏家必有輸家,有崛起注定也有衰落。而對(duì)于兩位當(dāng)事人——Sun和Oracle而言,這樣的結(jié)局又意味著什么呢?
賣給IBM,賣給Oracle,,抑或是其他“IT大款”,對(duì)于這個(gè)昔日的太陽(yáng)來說,都是落寞而悲壯的一件事:美人遲暮,英雄末路,充斥凄涼與無奈。但是,即便是賣,在心理層面,如果有更多選擇,也是要挑選最優(yōu)的。盡管遭IBM拋棄,Oracle還是開了個(gè)不錯(cuò)的價(jià)錢——74億美元,比IBM整整多出9億美元。此時(shí)不嫁,更待何時(shí)?雖然,收購(gòu)行為預(yù)計(jì)要到今年6月份才完成,最終拍板還得董事會(huì)股東投票通過,但有了雅虎的前車之鑒,這個(gè)結(jié)果應(yīng)該沒什么意外。
現(xiàn)在大家關(guān)心的問題是,Sun旗下的眾多硬件和軟件技術(shù)在新東家Oracle打理下,將是什么命運(yùn)?
Java:最有價(jià)值卻沒帶來價(jià)值
先說Java。Java是甲骨文收購(gòu)Sun時(shí)最看重的資產(chǎn),甚至可以說,是其收購(gòu)行為的根本原因。
在過去的13年中,Sun的Java語(yǔ)言已經(jīng)成了計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)最著名的品牌—未得到正確評(píng)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)。在4月20日的分析師電話會(huì)議上,OracleCEO拉里·埃里森(LarryEllison)曾強(qiáng)調(diào):“Java是我們收購(gòu)的最重要的軟件資產(chǎn)?!笔聦?shí)上,這樣的高度評(píng)價(jià)并非妄言。
截止2008年底,Java編程語(yǔ)言已經(jīng)在全球8億臺(tái)PC和21億部手機(jī)上運(yùn)行,包括諾基亞在內(nèi)的PC廠商和手機(jī)廠商都要支付該軟件的版權(quán)稅,可想而知,這樣龐大的用戶群將會(huì)帶來怎樣的效益。Oracle預(yù)計(jì),在未來一年,Java業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值可達(dá)到10億美元。然而,令人驚奇的是,在Sun發(fā)布的2008年年報(bào)中,其139億美元的總營(yíng)收中,Java產(chǎn)生的營(yíng)收只有2.2億美元。難怪不少人說,Java是最有價(jià)值卻沒有帶來價(jià)值的軟件品牌。據(jù)分析師分析,Java的沒落該怪罪于其不成功的商業(yè)模式和無能的銷售團(tuán)隊(duì),而這恰恰是Oracle的強(qiáng)項(xiàng),Java被Oracle接手后,很可能重新煥發(fā)生機(jī)。
此外,對(duì)于Oracle來說,還有比直接利潤(rùn)更重要的東西。掌控了Java就等于掌控了將來的產(chǎn)品維護(hù)趨勢(shì),將增加Oracle用戶的忠誠(chéng)度。而如果哪家廠商對(duì)Java的依賴程度很高,Oracle接手Sun后,他使用Java開發(fā)軟件的難度將增加。這無疑將使Oracle在與同行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中掌握極大話語(yǔ)權(quán)。這樣看來,將其視若手心之寶的Oracle,自然會(huì)好好善待Java,其美好命運(yùn)似乎確實(shí)不用擔(dān)憂。但雖如此,當(dāng)開源的Java遇到商業(yè)的Oracle,這兩種相互矛盾的商業(yè)模式的碰撞,又為其命運(yùn)增添了幾分玄機(jī)。
Solaris操作系統(tǒng)命運(yùn)不詳
除Java外,這是Sun帶給Oracle的第二塊最重要的寶藏。但與Java相比,Solaris的命運(yùn)相對(duì)叵測(cè)。
Solaris操作系統(tǒng)和Sparc服務(wù)器曾經(jīng)是Oracle數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的主要平臺(tái)。這一緊密的關(guān)系,對(duì)于Oracle極具誘惑力,特別是在新一代硬件出現(xiàn)后,以此為基礎(chǔ)的硬件將會(huì)為Oracle數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化。拉里森談到Sun的Solaris時(shí),也說它是“迄今為止最好的Unix技術(shù),”按照Oracle的意思,是想依托Solaris大有所為。但事實(shí)上,在全球三大操作系統(tǒng)市場(chǎng),來自Unix的市場(chǎng)份額正在不斷遭到Windows和Linux的蠶食。而且,Oracle在內(nèi)部使用的是Linux,甚至有自己的RHEL(RedHat企業(yè)版Linux)和堅(jiān)不可摧的Linux計(jì)劃。
現(xiàn)在拉里森對(duì)于Unix的支持,聽上去似乎很仁慈,但作為一種企業(yè)行為,卻沒有太多意義。隨著時(shí)間推移,再加上Oracle一貫的對(duì)成本控制的雷厲風(fēng)行,可以想見,不久的未來其對(duì)Solaris還會(huì)如此重視嗎?這無疑給其命運(yùn)蒙上濃重陰影。
利潤(rùn)率不容小覷。即使自從十年前互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅以來,Sun的硬件銷售每況欲下,但Sun的服務(wù)器仍然有著很大的用戶基礎(chǔ)。這里面有很多錢可以賺,也有許多忠實(shí)的用戶。此次收購(gòu),要讓Oracle對(duì)已收入囊中的一塊大肥肉撒手放棄,這確實(shí)有點(diǎn)難。
但如果完全整合,打造一個(gè)從硬件層面到軟件層面俱全的IT巨頭,也需要Oracle付出很大努力。同時(shí),更大的挑戰(zhàn)則是,Oracle以前的合作伙伴將就此成為敵人。面對(duì)惠普、戴爾、EMC等等昔日毫無沖突的親密合作伙伴如今變?yōu)橹苯痈?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的局面,如何平衡與他們之間的關(guān)系,是橫跨在Oracle面前的一道難題。
這次收購(gòu),Oracle股東將是最終受益者,埃里森以相對(duì)低的價(jià)格獲得了與IBM、惠普、思科、微軟、英特爾(博客)和其它大廠商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的入場(chǎng)券。而對(duì)于Sun,這是一種結(jié)束,卻也是另一種形式的開始。倘Java不死,開源不死,即使沒有了“太陽(yáng)”的名稱,它也被深深遺留于時(shí)間的永恒。因?yàn)?,它的精神將被傳承?/p>

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